Europe Economic Weekly

Research evidence excerpt

Europe Economic Weekly

Global Markets Research

19 June 2026Europe Economic Weekly

Economics - EMEA/Euro Area/Europe

Research Analysts

Starmer’s Nightmayor European Economics

George Buckley - NIplc

• Manchester Mayor Burnham became an MP this week and is now set to challenge for george.buckley@nomura.com

the Labour leadership. With better inflation news we now see no hikes from the BoE. +44 (0) 20 7102 1800

Andrzej Szczepaniak - NIplc • Industrial production is not yet reflecting the fiscal loosening in Germany. We expect andrzej.szczepaniak@nomura.com

next week’s barrage of surveys to reflect a hopeful outcome in the Middle East. +44 (0) 20 7102 3167

Josie Anderson - NIplc

Week in review josie.anderson@nomura.com

Andy Burnham won the Makerfield by-election by a wide margin, supporting his bid for the +44 (0) 20 7102 4284

leadership of the Labour Party. UK PM Keir Starmer has indicated he wants to contest the Global Economicschallenge but The Times suggests he may no longer have the backing of the cabinet to do

David Seif - NSIso. The most important question relates to Mr Burnham’s approach to fiscal policy, his pick david.seif@nomura.com

of Chancellor and whether he will stick to the fiscal rules. Elsewhere, we no longer expect +1 212 667 9180

a rate hike from the BoE after a better inflation print and this week’s BoE meeting.

In the euro area industrial production has been broadly flat – both in April and over the

past two years. German IP has failed to rebound in response to increased fiscal spending,

though defence production has ticked up. This week’s ZEW survey saw a second month

of improving expectations ahead of a barrage of surveys due in the coming week – which

we will be monitoring for the effect of the energy shock on growth vs. inflation.

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