Nippon Express Holdings: We await business profit growth on moves to asset-light model

Research evidence excerpt

Nippon Express Holdings: We await business profit growth on moves to asset-light model

Global Markets Research

19 June 2026Nippon Express Holdings

9147.T 9147 JP / EQUITY: JAPAN TRANSPORTATION

RatingWe await business profit growth on moves to

Remains Neutralasset-light model

Target price

Share price solid thanks to increases in real estate sales and share Increased from 3,700 JPY 4,800

buybacks, but we still see uncertainty through 27/12

Closing price JPY 5,181We retain Neutral rating, real estate sales keeping operating profits firm 18 June 2026

We retain our Neutral rating on Nippon Express Holdings and update our earnings

Implied upside -7.4%forecasts. We see three key points in assessing the stock: (1) the size and sustainability of

business asset sales; (2) the potential for business profit growth; and (3) profit

contributions from, and the risk of impairments at, M&As designed to expand operations

overseas. We raise our 26/12 operating profit forecast as management said it had

Relative performance chartincreased its projection for real estate sales when it released Q1 results. Even so, we still

think business profits will undershoot guidance. We obtain our new target price of ¥4,800

by multiplying our 26/12 EPS forecast by a P/E of 18–19x, a discount of 10–20% to the

Russell/Nomura Large Cap (ex financials) average of around 21x on FY26 forecasts. We

previously used a discount of 20–30% but now see less risk of 26/12 operating profits

falling short of guidance in view of increased real estate sales gains, and also see less risk

of a decline in shareholder returns following the company’s announcement of a share

buyback of up to ¥50bn.

No visibility for real estate sales after 27/12, await updates