Was the June FOMC a once-a-decade game changer?

Research evidence excerpt

Was the June FOMC a once-a-decade game changer?

Global Markets Research

Matsuzawa’s View: Macro Strategy Weekly 19 June 2026

Macro Strategy - Japan

Research AnalystsWas the June FOMC a once-a-decade game

Strategychanger?

Naka Matsuzawa - NSC

Risk that US rate hikes implemented as insurance could shift to rate hikes naka.matsuzawa@nomura.com

in earnest +81 3 6703 3864

• This author expects equities to be solid, bonds soft (steepening), USD to be range-

bound, and JPY to be soft in the week of 22 June.

• The decline in oil prices and inflation expectations following the Middle East peace

accord are winding down, and expectations for an economic recovery are likely to be

the main market driver.

• The market is overestimating the risk of a US rate hike this year and underestimating

the risk beyond that.

• If the risk of a rate hike this year declines, tech and cyclical stocks could gain upward

momentum.

• We should be wary of the risk that rate hikes meant as insurance could evolve into a

series of rate hikes and lead to the end of the credit cycle.

A week to gauge Fed's real intentions

In the week of 22 June, the main theme is likely to be the dividing line between a

precautionary Fed rate hike and full-scale rate hikes. Sub-themes will likely include

downside for oil prices and inflation expectations, a global economic recovery, the reality

of a Fed rate hike this year, the interest-rate sensitivity of tech stocks, the resonance

between JPY weakness and bond steepening, FX market interventions in Japan, and

earlier-than-expected BOJ rate hikes. Key factors to watch in the US will be Fedspeak

(Christopher Waller and John Williams) and the release of the PMI, the PCE deflator, and

weekly jobs data. In Japan, the key events to watch are the Summary of Opinions for the