Indonesia, Thailand/Malaysia, AI Capex Finance, 2H Rates Call

Research evidence excerpt

Indonesia, Thailand/Malaysia, AI Capex Finance, 2H Rates Call

ing we can’t

miss. BCA is guiding for a deceleration in loan growth for the year (5% instead of 8-10%), but they are comfortable with their

5.4-5.6% NIM guide as their CASA continues to benefit from a flight to quality.

As investors can’t invest in Indonesia, Thai banks’ dividend theme has been a safe haven (outside of Singapore). Similar to

China, banks’ dividend yield spread over the 10-year stands out amid low growth and deflation. (Thai banks’ dividend yield 5.7-

7.4% vs 10Y 2.08%.) The market was testing its preference for Malaysian banks earlier this year, as Maybank’s shift in tone on

increasing its dividend payout looked like a sign that Malaysian banks are finally willing to release their ample excess capital. But

as May’s share price suggests, the bank stopped talking about payout. Something seems to have changed their mind, but nobody

seems to know the exact reason and I don’t think the market likes uncertainty. Malaysia’s election was scheduled for 2027, but

expectations are increasingly shifting toward an earlier timeline, potentially as soon as later this year given political shifts at state

level. As Harsh downgraded Maybank to Neutral and upgraded some Thai banks (more below), I agree we should park our

money in Thailand (outside of Singapore) while remaining on the sidelines to monitor developments in Indonesia.

Speaking of weak currencies as a pain point, USDJPY has depreciated further to near 162 level even after BoJ’s 25bp hike last

Tue. Ayako continues to forecast Oct hike and policy rate to reach 1.5% by June 2027. Our flow saw a meaningful pick-up in

Japan banks buying after the June BoJ moved the goal posts by making the neutral rate range vague. Japan’s parliament’s likely