JPM | APAC THEMATICS - US & Iran talks: Ignore the negotiating bluster & buy the dip / Constructive geopolitical window: Through early July / HF Positioning: Neutral territory / Fed call: No hikes in 2H26

Research evidence excerpt

JPM | APAC THEMATICS - US & Iran talks: Ignore the negotiating bluster & buy the dip / Constructive geopolitical window: Through early July / HF Positioning: Neutral territory / Fed call: No hikes in 2H26

oking for two or more moves. We anticipated a hawkish tilt, but the magnitude of the move

surprised us - going beyond the removal of an easing bias in 2026. The motivation for the shift is the revised projections - core

inflation in 2026 (3.3%) and 2027 (2.5%) moved materially higher, and the committee shifted from a downside to a balanced

assessment of growth risks. That said, we continue to see a 2026 rate hike as unlikely… with a moderation in the pace of headline

and core inflation expected in the coming months. As a result, we don’t expect a first hike until 2027 - and our baseline is that the

dots will get pushed back.

- ESG Strategy - Forced labour… back on the agenda as China automakers scale in Europe (Hannah Lee). Forced labor risk

is moving back up the investor agenda as a trade lever in the US with Section 301 pushing the issue from isolated company

allegations toward economy-wide pressures that can raise compliance costs and policy volatility for exporters. At the same time,

company risk profiles are changing as Chinese automakers scale manufacturing in Europe, widening the stakeholder set and

raising political scrutiny precisely when ramp-ups are most prone to teething issues. In this latest note, Hannah Lee and Nick Lai

combine to provide case studies on BYD and Fuyao Glass to walk through how these issues can impact investment decision

making.

- Australia Strategy - Paradox lost… global & local pressures (Jason Steed). The ASX 200 has underperformed since the onset

of the Middle East conflict, underperforming MSCI DM by 900bp and the S&P 500 by 1200bp.