JPM Mining Daily: Iron Ore -0.9%, Gold -1.3%, PLS P2000, Brazil Steel, Gold Fields & More

Research evidence excerpt

JPM Mining Daily: Iron Ore -0.9%, Gold -1.3%, PLS P2000, Brazil Steel, Gold Fields & More

of projects and geographies (yet to be

revealed) will be crucial in assessing the extent of the potential upside to DEWA’s future

returns profile, but we think the market will likely welcome the international expansion

vector, as it adds to both strategic diversification and growth for DEWA Group. We remain

OW.

PLS Group

Pre-FID capex approved for P2000; accelerated timeline positive; retain Overweight

PLS has approved ~A$175m of pre-FID capex in FY27 for its P2000 project, which is

budgeted to double concentrate production from 1Mtpa to 2Mtpa. Key takeaways: (1) PLS

is targeting FID in DecQ26 with first ore in mid-2029, ~2 years ahead of our prior start-up

assumption. (2) There is no update on the capital cost – we continue to budget $2bn for the

whole project (PLS expected the plant + mine expansion to cost $1.2bn in Jun ’24 but this

excluded some elements of the full scope). (3) The pull forward of cash flows lifts our NPV

by 3%. Overall, we regard the acceleration of the project as strategically sensible, given our

view the market remains undersupplied this side of 2030, and the project looks easily funded,

given our forecast net cash position of ~$1.1bn at the end of FY26, rising to ~$2bn net cash

in FY27 (despite accelerated capex deployment). PLS remains our preferred lithium stock,

with our $7.7ps PT offering ~25% upside from the last close.

Ternium

Pounding the Table on Ternium

Improving momentum across Ternium’s core markets; pounding the table on Ternium.

We see an inflection underway in both Mexico and Brazil, which together support a more

constructive view on Ternium. In Brazil, anti-dumping measures approved since the start of