Copper: Where we’re going, we don’t need balances

Research evidence excerpt

Copper: Where we’re going, we don’t need balances

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

21 June 2026

Copper

Where we’re going, we don’t need balances

• With tight mine supply and structurally supported demand, the medium- Global Commodities Research

term environment for copper prices remains supportive. However, at ~ Gregory C. Shearer

$13,600/mt, up by more than 40% yoy in a surplus global refined market (44-20) 7134-8161

backdrop, it is hard to argue that copper prices look cheap. gregory.c.shearer@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

• The key 2H26 catalyst is policy, not balances: the structure/ Ali A. Ibrahim

communication following the US review of Section 232 copper tariffs. (44-20) 3493-6438

• The market is effectively in a US–China tug of war for copper. The US has ali.ibrahim@jpmorgan.com

been pulling metal via an attractive COMEX/LME arb since early 2025, J.P. Morgan Securities plc

tightening the ex-US market and reducing China’s historical role as the Ananyashree Gupta

marginal price setter. (91-22) 6157 3627

ananyashree.gupta@jpmchase.com

• Amid this competition, China’s buying floor has shifted materially higher. J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

Despite episodic buyer strikes/exports causing volatility, concentrate

constraints and the US import pull on copper has forced China to tolerate

significantly higher prices to meet overall import needs.

• We believe the Trump administration will pursue a phased, escalating

tariff on refined copper cathode imports following the upcoming review to

1) ensure all the copper that has already been imported into the US stays

onshore and 2) keep this excess US inventory as a critical reserve, rather

than enact policy which incentivizes it to quickly destock in the coming

years.