Colruyt: Hard work to stand still

Research evidence excerpt

Colruyt: Hard work to stand still

fresh bakery. Colruyt is trialling a new

bakery format in its stores, perhaps in preparation to compete on Sundays in the future. The share of customer spending on a

Sunday in the market rose from 5% last year to 6-7%.

There appear to be two possible paths to opening Colruyt stores on a Sunday: legislative change or customer

change. The first possibility is that legislation might change to end the ‘uneven playing field’ which disadvantages Colruyt (or

disadvantages the employees of newly franchised stores, depending on your perspective). While this is on the political agenda

(studies are underway), the Company expects progress to be slow. This change could reverse Colruyt’s sales and market share

trend with attractive economics. The second route is for customer demand for Sunday opening to increase to the level where it

becomes viable for Colruyt to open, even with its current costs. This would provide a boost to sales but dilute operating margins.

A third solution would be for the Company to consider converting to a franchise model, but they see this as unworkable for a

discounter.

Revenue growth outlook is 1.5-2.5%. The company expects food inflation to be 1.5-2.5% this year, and for its sales growth

to match this level. They expect to see a 9-12 month lag between any increases in supplier pricing and retail price inflation, so

higher inflation later in 2026 will not feed through in FY26/27. There is no expectation of meaningful volume or share recovery

in FY26/27.

Cost pressures will continue. Belgium’s labour regulations mean that wage inflation will be at least 3%, running ahead of

food price inflation. The company also said that their cost inflation is beginning to rise (making gains in gross margin from H2

difficult to sustain).