The J.P. Morgan View: From Oil Risk Premium to Reformist Hawkish Fed: Mid-Cycle Pause & AI Supercycle

Research evidence excerpt

The J.P. Morgan View: From Oil Risk Premium to Reformist Hawkish Fed: Mid-Cycle Pause & AI Supercycle

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

19 June 2026

The J.P. Morgan View

From Oil Risk Premium to Reformist Hawkish Fed: Mid-

Cycle Pause & AI Supercycle

• The announcement of the US and Iran agreeing to sign a memorandum of Cross Asset Strategy

AC understanding ending the conflict led to a further decline in oil prices, with Fabio Bassi

Brent prices ~$80/bbl, close to the lowest level since the start of the conflict. (44-20) 7134-1989

• Geopolitical risk premiums, summer demand, and the large inventory fabio.bassi@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities plc

rebuild, together with the post-conflict infrastructure damage, should limit

Dubravko Lakos-Bujas

a further decline in oil prices, with risks tilted to the upside. Nevertheless, (1-212) 622-3601

the agreement reinforces our view of fading downside risks to growth dubravko.lakos-bujas@jpmorgan.com

coming from a spike in oil prices and subsequent demand destruction. J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

• Central banks are likely to remain vigilant given elevated energy prices and Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou

risks of additional pass-through to core prices. Chair Warsh’s first meeting (44-20) 7134-7815

nikolaos.panigirtzoglou@jpmorgan.com

surprised to the hawkish side across the policy statement, Warsh’s rhetoric, J.P. Morgan Securities plc

and the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). The expected removal of Mika Inkinen

“additional adjustments” from the statement was reinforced by the (44-20) 7742 6565

reiteration of the Fed’s commitment to deliver price stability after mika.j.inkinen@jpmorgan.com

persistent missing of the target. The 2026 median dots showed hikes from J.P. Morgan Securities plc