Global Metals & Mining: Infrastructure contractor order intake in China (4 qtr trailing avg: -3%y/y) and implications for FY‘26/27 steel demand

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Global Metals & Mining: Infrastructure contractor order intake in China (4 qtr trailing avg: -3%y/y) and implications for FY‘26/27 steel demand

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19 Jun 2026 09:00:00 ET │ 9 pages

Global Metals & Mining

Infrastructure contractor order intake in China (4 qtr trailing avg: -

3%y/y) and implications for FY’26/27 steel demand

Ephrem Ravi AC

CITI'S TAKE +44-20-7986-2462

Order intake from infrastructure construction contractors in China has led ephrem.ravi@citi.com

demand for commodities from infrastructure by 5-6 quarters. 1Q’26 order Wenyu Yaointake was down 22%y/y, one of the biggest decline in a decade. In a modest

inflationary construction cost environment one would require a c2-4%y/y +44-20-7986-4551

growth in orders to keep steel demand from infrastructure flat in 12-18 wenyu.yao@citi.com

months. We see relatively flat y/y demand for steel from infrastructure Jack Shang, CFA

construction in China in FY’26 and marginally lower in FY’27. Any big drop jack.shang@citi.comin order intake in FY’26 will translate into steel demand only with a lag in

FY’27 Krishan M Agarwal

krishan.agarwal@citi.com

Orderbook of the infrastructure contractors one of the best leading indicators for

Tom Mulqueencommodity demand from infrastructure —We have been tracking this growth rate

and flagging that this has been decelerated over the last 12 quarters, but still growing tom.mulqueen@citi.com

(China infrastructure contractor order intake - Arguably the best datapoint for the Shashi Shekhar, CFA

outlook for demand from infrastructure construction).

shashi.shekhar@citi.com

4-quarter trailing order intake -3%y/y—Given the long lags between order intake Omnath Sinh

and acceleration of project execution, it makes sense to look at the 12 month trailing