Gaming The Kick off: Bi-Weekly Bookmaker Barometer: World Cup Edition

Research evidence excerpt

Gaming The Kick off: Bi-Weekly Bookmaker Barometer: World Cup Edition

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

19 June 2026

Gaming

The Kick off: Bi-Weekly Bookmaker Barometer: World

Cup Edition

This note introduces our FIFA World Cup Bookmaker Barometer that we will European Leisure, Hotels & Gaming

ACupdate twice a week, a framework designed to interpret match results and Estelle Weingrod

understand their directional impact on bookmakers. The tracker turns each (44-20) 7742-8502

completed match into an intuitive signal of whether the outcome was more likely estelle.weingrod@jpmorgan.com

bookie-negative (i.e., the most probable pre-match result occurs) or positive (i.e., J.P. Morgan Securities plc

the most probable pre-match result does not occur), and assigns a comparable score Karan Puri AC

that can be aggregated across matchdays to indicate whether a slate likely favoured (44-20) 7742-8342

karan.puri@jpmorgan.com

bettors or bookmakers. For the purpose of this analysis, we assume publicly backed J.P. Morgan Securities plc

bets align with the most probable match result (home win, draw, or away win)

Avni Garg

implied by the pre-match market. This tracker is designed to assess (91-22) 6157-3431

directionality rather than provide bookmaker profit estimates – it does not avni.garg@jpmchase.com

capture parameters around actual stakes, parlays/accumulators, in-play, or prop J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

markets, which will add some variability to the bookies outcomes for each game.

Specialist Sales contact details:

• Week 1 currently tracking bookie negative: Matches results to date appear Olivia Petronilho - Specialist Sales -

unfavourable for bookmakers from a directional impact perspective. Our European Consumer