The Searchlight: Paradox Lost

Research evidence excerpt

The Searchlight: Paradox Lost

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

19 June 2026

The Searchlight

Paradox Lost

• A post-conflict paradox? The post-conflict market aftermath reveals an Australia

apparent paradox: one that unravels on closer inspection. In our view, the

Australia Equity Strategy

Middle East conflict was unlikely to conform to a standard geopolitical

upheaval template, where oil and gold rally in tandem and defensives Jason Steed AC

outperform. Rather, as framed by our economists, it looked set to be an energy (61-2) 9003-8609

jason.h.steed@jpmorgan.com

supply shock super-imposed on an AI capex super-cycle. The anatomy of the

Roisin Kiernan

shock largely explains the seemingly counter-intuitive market scorecard. (61-2) 9003-6670

Higher inflation has kept central banks on a restrictive tack, lifting real yields, roisin.kiernan@jpmorgan.com

firming the USD, and weighing down on the very defensives and bond proxies J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

that a war-premium strategy typically favours. Layered on top of this, an

extraordinary surge in the Tech/AI complex has drawn flows from almost every

corner of the market. Figure 1: ASX 200 vs ASX 200 (EW)

Performance

• Battling persistent turbulence – The ASX 200 has underperformed deeply

since the onset of the conflict in the Middle East. Against the MSCI DM, our 5%

index is lagging by 900bp, while the gap to the S&P 500 is even wider at - ASX 200 ASX 200 (EW) 3.8%

1200bp. Our market has been buffeted by several headwinds, both global and

local. On the global front, the impact of higher energy prices has been felt 3% 2.8%

throughout the economy, putting upward pressure on costs and adding to the

threat of future rate hikes. On the domestic front, a distinctly market-unfriendly