EMEA EM Local Market Flows, Positioning and Issuance

Research evidence excerpt

EMEA EM Local Market Flows, Positioning and Issuance

EMEA EM Local Markets Strategy,

Paul Bo-Yang Sheng (AC) (44-20) 3493-9297 J.P.Morgan Securities plc Michael Harrison (AC) (44-20) 7134-5720 J.P.Morgan Securities plc

Anezka Christovova (44-20) 7742-2630 J.P.Morgan Securities plc Shaun Daly (44-20) 7134-0776 J.P.Morgan Securities plc

EMEA EM Local Market Flows, Positioning and Issuance 19-June-2026

Foreign Flows into Local Government Bonds: April saw inflows rebound (+$5.8bn) following sharp outflows in March Foreign Flows into Local Currency Government Bonds Summary(-$12.1bn) triggered by the Middle East conflict; high frequency data since May show SAGB inflows and TURKGB

outflows. Czech local bonds saw the largest inflows in April (+$2.1bn) to take YTD inflows to +$5.7bn, the largest in the region. Last 12m cumulative flows based on latest available data, USD billion.

Hungary also saw sizeable inflows in April (+$1.3bn) after March outflows (-$0.5bn). South Africa has seen consecutive inflows

since April (+$2.1bn), but these have not fully offset March outflows (-$3.8bn). TURKGBs have been a notable laggard, with net

outflows since April (-$0.5bn) after large March outflows (-$6.1bn). POLGB inflows have also lagged (+$0.2bn in April). 14 Poland Hungary Czech Romania

12 Turkiye South Africa Israel Serbia

Issuance: Regional divergence. Poland has issued 62% of our FY gross issuance forecast YTD, despite slowing down in June

with only one auction MTD. Bid-to-cover ratios are however decreasing versus the strong auctions at the beginning of the year. 10 9.2

Israel and Hungary are also ahead of schedule, with the AKK increasingly issuing more than initially planned in recent auctions 8 7.5amid large demand.