Forward Focus | Europe: Key Metrics into Earnings

Research evidence excerpt

Forward Focus | Europe: Key Metrics into Earnings

EMEA Equity Research AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7134-9899 19 June 2026 J P M O R G A N

EER_publications@jpmorgan.com

Upcoming Earnings Events, Key Metrics & JPMe

Monday 22 June

CW Company, Analyst, Sector Event Key Metrics JPMe Preview Analyst Commentary

Babcock (OW) FY Babcock released a post-close trading update on 13th May. Excluding a

charge on the Type 31 frigate, EBITA came in 5% above company-

David H Perry, CFA

compiled consensus. We rate the shares OW.

Aerospace & Defense

Thursday 25 June

Hennes & Mauritz (UW) Q2 '26 Sales ex-FX (% yoy) -1.00 The group has disclosed Mar sales at +1% yoy ex-FX; however, since

Results then, market data has deteriorated and some (but not all) peers have

referenced a softer consumer. Combined with tougher comps, we

Georgina Johanan, ACA EBIT (SEK m) 6,053.08

therefore assume that growth slows, and forecast sales ex-FX to

General Retail decline by -1% for the quarter overall (despite some better weather at

the end of May). Below top line, we expect the gross margin to move

higher by +100bps, with less strength than seen in Q1 due to more

markdowns to catalyze the consumer, along with some air freight cost

pressure. We model a similar opex trend to that seen in Q1 at -1% yoy

ex-FX. Overall, therefore, we forecast Q2 26 EBIT +2% yoy to SEK

6.1bn (BBG cons. SEK 6.3bn). On outlook, current trading will, as

always, be in focus. Jun should be supported by cal effects of around

+1%, but we nevertheless still forecast a slightly negative performance.

More broadly, growth is being driven by gross margin expansion which

we expect to fade into the second half. We also expect worsening opex

deleverage as the year progresses. Combined with the uncertainty on