Global Data Watch: Asia: Stimulus Delayed, Growth Deferred in China

Research evidence excerpt

Global Data Watch: Asia: Stimulus Delayed, Growth Deferred in China

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Economic Research

19 June 2026

Global Data Watch: Asia

Stimulus Delayed, Growth Deferred in China

China: Stimulus Delayed, Growth Deferred Emerging Markets Asia, Economic

and Policy ResearchChina’s activity softened further in May, raising questions about the economy’s

resilience. The housing slump showed little sign of turning, and higher energy Sajjid Z Chinoy

costs, falling retail sales and a sharp investment decline added pressure. Growth (91-22) 6157-3386

became more narrowly concentrated in the export and technology sectors, which sajjid.z.chinoy@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Mumbai Branch

remain too small, capital-intensive, and less labor-intensive to offset weakness in

Anusha Mital

housing and construction. Their limited spillovers to employment, income and the

(91-22) 6157-4113

broader economy help explain the looser link between industrial production and anusha.mital@jpmchase.com

GDP growth in 2Q. J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

The main drag was insufficient fiscal delivery, which weakened infrastructure

momentum. After a strong 1Q policy push, government bond issuance and fund

deployment became less front-loaded, reducing support for “effective investment”

and contributing to broad FAI weakness. Infrastructure investment slowed as local

governments faced limited project pipelines, constrained finances, and debt

pressures. Private investment also remained soft amid poor expected returns and

fragile confidence, while households were held back by subdued income

expectations, weak job prospects, and the continued housing downturn. Housing

remains a sizeable drag, with only a narrow stabilization in tier-1 secondary

markets.