UK: Burnham another step closer to becoming the next PM

Research evidence excerpt

UK: Burnham another step closer to becoming the next PM

J P M O R G A N Europe Economic Research

19 June 2026

UK: Burnham another step closer

to becoming the next PM

• Andy Burnham clears another hurdle to becoming the next Prime Economic and Policy Research

Minister in a significant Makerfield by-election win. But the transition Allan Monks

and clarity on fiscal changes is likely to take some time to come (44-20) 7134-8309

allan.j.monks@jpmorgan.com

Andy Burnham won the Makerfield by-election with a very strong 55% share of J.P. Morgan Securities plc

the vote, and by a margin of over 9k votes compared to Reform as the next largest

party. This exceeds the 5k margin of victory that Labour enjoyed in Makerfield at

the 2024 general election and leaves Burnham with significant political

momentum.

The next steps are not entirely clear. Burnham appears minded to encourage

Starmer to announce a timetable for his departure as Labour leader and Prime

Minister, as part of an orderly transition. This could take at least several weeks and

stetch over the summer, but would provide clarity up front. Starmer has indicated

he will not go easily, but the strength of the Makerfield victory and pressure from

his own cabinet might change his mind.

If Starmer vows to fight Burnham, or if another Labour MP such as Wes Streeting

were to find enough support, this could lead to a more formal leadership contest.

This could last two or three months, given the process would need to allow for

nominations, a period for debates and then several weeks for party members to vote

in a ballot. This process might have a similar duration to an orderly transition, but

would result in a little more uncertainty about the eventual outcome and could

delay the start of new policies.