The Global Point

Research evidence excerpt

The Global Point

UK Economics - Labour Market Release: Labour market data for April more

hawkish, but still cooling

At first glance, the labour market data looks to have surprised on the upside: AWE

Regular Pay came in stronger than expected; the April payroll data didn't fall as

expected; and the expected fall in LFS employment ended up being much less.

However, there is more than meets the eye: AWE regular pay growth was once

again driven by public sector pay strength, and it appears that employment growth

continues to be driven by those in self-employment jobs.

May Rostom | Callum McLaren-Stewart

Grafton Group PLC (GFTU_u.L) - Post CMD model update: Medium-Term Value

Creation Despite Near-Term Headwinds

Grafton flagged a more challenging backdrop emerging in March–April, with rising

geopolitical uncertainty after a resilient start to the year. The group now expects

3–5% price inflation in FY2026, with certain categories seeing double-digit

increases, driving pricing above initial expectations. While underlying market

growth is conservatively assumed at ~2.5–3% CAGR (2025–2030) before self-help

measures, near-term trading remains pressured by a weaker Great Britain market,

where construction activity is set to contract. The completed Cygnum and

Mercaluz acquisitions should provide partial mitigation. Regionally, the group

expects margin recovery in Great Britain and Northern Europe (>9%), stable high

returns in Ireland (~10%), and strong growth in Iberia (8–10% margins) to 2030.

FY2026 adjusted operating profit is guided at £190m–£200m, Over 2026-2030,

management targets >£850m cumulative, >10% EPS CAGR (2025–2030), and

~13% ROCE by 2030, while maintaining investment-grade leverage (1–2x net

debt/EBITDA) and a disciplined, balanced capital allocation strategy.