Malaysia: Trade surplus hits record high in May: Upgrade 2026 growth to 5%oya; expect BNM hike in 4Q26

Research evidence excerpt

Malaysia: Trade surplus hits record high in May: Upgrade 2026 growth to 5%oya; expect BNM hike in 4Q26

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Economic Research

19 June 2026

Malaysia: Trade surplus hits

record high in May

Upgrade 2026 growth to 5%oya; expect BNM hike in

4Q26

May trade surplus blows past expectations: Malaysia’s May trade surplus came Economic Research

in materially above expectations, rising for a third consecutive month to a record Siddharth Jamad

high of US$10.2bn (J.P. Morgan: US$5.1bn, consensus: US$5.8bn) (Table 1). In (65) 6807-5503

seasonally adjusted terms, the trade surplus printed higher still at US$12.7bn siddharth.jamad@jpmorgan.com

(Figure 1). The record trade surplus was underpinned by soaring exports, with the JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore Branch

muted 1.4%m/m, sa headline export gain masking divergent moves in domestic

and re-exports. Domestic exports – which drive local value-add – strengthened

21.9%m/m, sa, and their 3m/3m momentum re-accelerated to 48.8%ar.

Meanwhile, re-exports swung sharply back down (-34.5%) after an abrupt surge

in April, likely reflecting distortions due to the Middle East conflict (Figures 2, 3).

Alongside another tech beat, the non-tech trade surplus also increased

sharply last month: In terms of product composition, last month’s jump in the

trade surplus was split evenly between tech and non-tech goods (Figure 4). The

increase in the non-tech surplus was in turn driven by a rebound in the energy

balance back into a surplus, as well as an uptick in the non-tech, non-energy

balance. The improvement in the energy balance reflected a sharp rebound in net

exports of petroleum products, which more than offset a further widening of the

crude oil deficit (Figure 5). Meanwhile, net LNG exports held broadly steady,