EM FX

Research evidence excerpt

EM FX

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A Nlaoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 19 June 2026

RUB Usd/rub pushed a little higher again yesterday, perhaps in sympathy with the general usd bid

post Warsh, but more likely ahead of the CBR meeting today. Rates are expected to be cut 50

basis points to 14 percent but there's an outside chance of more after Putin's comments last

week. Not running much in spot but would expect month end flows to kick in soon which

should mean lower.

ZAR The dollar continued to move higher overnight, with USDZAR now back at 16.50. Historically,

this is a level where it makes sense to start fading rand weakness, but I do think the dollar can

extend even higher this time, so not looking to put sizeable position on just yet. Will instead

slowly scale into rand longs, mainly against CAD, CHF and EUR shorts. Flow-wise, we

surprisingly saw better supply in USDZAR, mainly from real-money accounts.

TRY TRY is facing a less friendly external backdrop after the hawkish FOMC, with a stronger USD

and higher front-end rates weighing on EM carry in general. Having said that, USDTRY price

action is still firmly contained by state-bank offers unchanged at 46.4450 today, in line with the

expected crawl. Local flows remain the main focus. Corporate FX demand has been firm again

this week, although part of this seems to be linked to offshore/onshore rate differentials rather

than a broader dollarisation trend. More importantly, there are still no meaningful signs of local

retail dollarisation, and locals appear to have shifted back toward TRY after the initial reaction

to the CHP headlines about a month ago. Political risk has also eased somewhat. Early election