Japan Bank Sector: Focus on both positive + negative side of BoJ hikes 日銀利上げの好悪両面に備えたい

Research evidence excerpt

Japan Bank Sector: Focus on both positive + negative side of BoJ hikes 日銀利上げの好悪両面に備えたい

Pecking order Ticker Company Rating Theme Theme

＜High＞

Positive: Most conservative FY2026 guidance among megabanks; better CET1 ratio than peers 2026年度ガイダンスはメガバンク内で最も保守的。他社比優位なCET1比率

8316 SMFG OW

Negative: Concern for too much growth investments 成長投資へ傾斜することへの懸念

Positive: ROE will be highest amont three megabanks ROEがメガバンク内で最高になると予想

8411 MizuhoFG OW

Negative: Asset quality concerns about some large clients in Japan 国内の大口顧客についての信用状況の懸念

Japan Post Positive: Net income could double by 2028 2028年度には純利益が倍になっているポテンシャル

7182 OW

Bank Negative: Concerns about unrealized loss on Yen bonds 円債評価損への懸念

Positive: Expectations for Ripple Labs' IPO price to be the driver リップル社のIPO価格への期待値が株価ドライバーに

8473 SBI HD OW

Negative: Unclear when positive catalyst (regulation for cryptos) will emerge 暗号資産への規制といったカタリストがいつ発現するか不透明

Positive: Strong growth in domestic retail deposits; stable quarterly earnings in the past 国内リテール預金に強み。四半期業績には安定感

8331 Chiba OW

Negative: Positive synergy effects with Chiba Kogyo Bank unclear 千葉興銀とのシナジー効果が不透明

Positive: Higher TOPIX will support a continuous aggressive shareholder return 株高は継続的な積極的株主還元をサポートしよう

5831 Shizuoka FG OW

Negative: Buybacks can be offset by P&C companies' sales バイバックが損保による売出しで相殺されるリスク

Positive: Expectations for better fee growth among regional banks 地銀内ではフィー成長への期待が高い

7186 Yokohama FG OW

Negative: M&A risk and Nissan factory shut-down risk M&Aリスクと日産工場閉鎖のリスク

Positive: Higher TOPIX is additional boost to MUFG bottom line 株高は純利益への追い風に

8306 MUFG OW

Negative: Stronger yen poses a headwind; has the lowest CET1 ratio among megabanks 円高が逆風になるリスク。メガバンク内でCET1比率は最も低い

Positive: A well-managed securities portfolio 有価証券ポートフォリオの管理は良好

7167 Mebuki FG OW