JPM | EMEA Spec Sits Daily: UK politics call at 7.30 UKT, CBK GY index event today: EMEA Special Situations Specialist Commentary Merger/Arbitrage • Pre-Announced • Spin-off • Event Driven

Research evidence excerpt

JPM | EMEA Spec Sits Daily: UK politics call at 7.30 UKT, CBK GY index event today: EMEA Special Situations Specialist Commentary Merger/Arbitrage • Pre-Announced • Spin-off • Event Driven

Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

19 June 2026

JPM Research

• BoE: Patience for now, but risks skewed towards tightening- Allan Monks here

• The BoE held rates today, with Greene joining Pill in dissenting hawkishly for a 25bp hike. Aside from that additional

dissent, the overall message from the statement and individual members’ paragraphs was that further evidence of

disinflation has bought more time for the committee to wait and assess the risk of second-round effects and inflation

persistence.

• We think the BoE is still likely to hike this year as inflation rises. We assume that early survey evidence of indirect and

second-round effects will fade somewhat due to lower energy prices, but with part of their rise being sustained.

• If growth and the labour market recover as inflation picks up further in 2H26, this could lead to stronger pass-through

effects into core and wages. If a range of other central banks tighten due to a mix of resilience in the global growth outlook

and inflation concerns, we doubt the BoE would sit and hold.

• For now and in the near term, however, the BoE is signalling that it is not prepared to act pre-emptively. We hence shift

our call for a July hike back to November. In adopting this more patient strategy, the BoE runs the risk of raising rates

only after clear signs of second-round effects have emerged, which is something it has previously hinted would be unwise.

• ECB: Case for another hike in a “mild” scenario- Greg Fuzesi here

• Following last week’s 25bp ECB hike and hawkish staff projections, an announced agreement between Iran and the US