Global Data Watch

Research evidence excerpt

Global Data Watch

ing energy prices — US gasoline has a smaller 25bp hike than we had expected pre-deal; we still

returned to $4/gallon this week — it is the lift in business sec- look for further tightening, but lower energy skews risks

tor spending and hiring that is anticipated to provide a cush- towards a shallower path. In Indonesia, hikes remain driven

ion through a period of softening in consumption spending. In by FX pressures; we look for one more 25bp move in July,

this space, the news remains encouraging. Global factory out- though a hawkish Fed tilt pushes risks higher.

put rose 0.2%m/m in April, lifting the three-month pace to a

robust 5.0%ar. Against the backdrop of soft gains in China, In EMEA EM, the CNB’s 25bp hike leaves us expecting

this outcome reflects the breadth of underlying business another move in August, but with rising odds of a one-and-

demand for both tech and non-tech products. If we are right, done; Hungary’s NBH is set to resume cuts next week and

it also reflects a turn in the inventory and hiring cycles, which lower oil lowers the bar for further easing; and Türkiye’s de-

should provide a bridge as the expansion absorbs a midyear escalation backdrop increases the odds of earlier operational

moderation in consumer spending gains. normalization, with one-week repo auctions potentially

resuming as soon as the July 23 MPC (lowering effective

Next week’s June flash PMI report will provide an early sig- funding by ~300bp to 37%).

nal of whether business sentiment is lifting in the face of the

recent fall in energy prices. Our expectation is that Western In LatAm, lower oil helps greenlight another 25bp cut in Bra-

Europe’s businesses experienced the largest drag from the zil, but stronger growth, above-target inflation, and rising