JPM | APAC THEMATICS - Macro Setup: Oil over Dots / Fed: Creating volatility / Iran: Risk on window through early July... & the long-term impact of Iran = lower oil.

Research evidence excerpt

JPM | APAC THEMATICS - Macro Setup: Oil over Dots / Fed: Creating volatility / Iran: Risk on window through early July... & the long-term impact of Iran = lower oil.

Specialist Sales

APAC Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

18 June 2026

JPM | APAC THEMATICS - Macro Setup: Oil over Dots / Fed:

Creating volatility / Iran: Risk on window through early July… &

the long-term impact of Iran = lower oil.

Matthew See

+852 2800 8889

matthew.see@jpmorgan.com

APAC Thematics focuses on key macro views, market debates, and favoured investment themes.

THE BIG PICTURE: Oil matters more than the dots. US markets rebounded overnight as free-falling oil (-30% past 1

month) resulted in an easing in yields and a rebound in risk-sentiment. The oil inflation impulse of 2Q is quickly giving way

to a deflationary sequential impulse in 3Q.

The Fed is creating volatility. Looking forward, we should brace for higher day #1/#2 volatility around Fed meetings.

Shorter statements, no guidance, and limited justification…. means the market must make its own interpretation, with no Fed

Chair contextualisation. Day #1 moves will often precede day #2 reversals.

We have a risk-on window through early July around Iran. JPM Center of Geopolitics correctly say we have a “pause, not

a peace”. But for markets near-term, I’m not sure they will care about this distinction. Into America’s 250 celebrations and

the funeral for Khamenei, both in early July - neither side want a spoiler. If the headlines stay positive, markets will just

focus on oil prices falling & strait transits rising.

There's also a decent chance of a deal. While many of the thorniest issues are still to be resolved, the US has thrown enough

economic sweeteners at the situation that we have a good chance of getting a deal over the US red-lines.