Transportation & Logistics: Riding the Rails: May Intermodal Market Update

Research evidence excerpt

Transportation & Logistics: Riding the Rails: May Intermodal Market Update

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

18 June 2026

Transportation & Logistics

Riding the Rails: May Intermodal Market Update

The Intermodal Association of North America (IANA) released May volume data Airfreight & Surface Transportation /

that shows Domestic activity continuing to set records, which is consistent with Shipping

J.B. Hunt’s recent commentary that demand remains solid while capacity Brian P. Ossenbeck, CFA AC

continues to tighten. Tough International volume comps should ease in the coming (1-212) 622-1023

months, with additional support reflected in stronger booking activity from China brian.p.ossenbeck@jpmorgan.com

to the U.S. two months into the quarter we estimate that JBI loads are tracking +2% Grady Carr

YoY using IANA data in Figure 6, while SONAR implies stronger growth of +3.4% (1-212) 622-1251

YoY (Figure 56). Actual JBI loads have outperformed these forecasts over the last grady.carr@jpmchase.com

4 quarters by 55bps (IANA) and 60bps (SONAR) on average, which already Brandon Wexler

(1-212) 622-1956

appears to be reflected in consensus currently at +4.8% YoY with some expecting brandon.wexler@jpmchase.com

HSD growth. The data in this note fits with the commentary from our expert call J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

on the state of the intermodal market (see recap note here) and we expect

intermodal rates will follow Domestic volumes higher. However, it is worth noting

that IMC realized prices will not fully reflect stronger freight rates until 2H27 while

a tight driver market will start to have a negative near-term impact on drayage.

• Domestic intermodal strength driving volume higher. Domestic intermodal