South Africa Strategy - tracking foreign flows: Can foreigners re-engage the SA market? The re-opening of the Strait is part of the story but not all of it

Research evidence excerpt

South Africa Strategy - tracking foreign flows: Can foreigners re-engage the SA market? The re-opening of the Strait is part of the story but not all of it

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

19 June 2026

South Africa Strategy - tracking

foreign flows

Can foreigners re-engage the SA market? The re-

opening of the Strait is part of the story but not all of it

With the Strait re-opening now in play, interest from investors has centered CEEMEA & South Africa Equity

on one question: will foreign investors re-engage the SA market in size? Our Strategy

read is yes, but conditionally — and the flow data tells an instructive story. To Inga Q Galeni AC

frame the analysis, we segment SA foreign flows into Domestic sectors (material (27-11) 507-0335

SA & SSA earnings exposure) and Offshore sectors (predominantly hard currency inga.galeni@jpmorgan.com

earners). We flag upfront that flow data for dual-listed names (concentrated in the J.P. Morgan Equities South Africa (Pty) Ltd.

Offshore bucket) carries noise that tends to result in outflows despite instances David Aserkoff, CFA AC

where it isn’t the case– this data should be interpreted with that caveat. (44-20) 7134-5887

david.aserkoff@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Overall, SA Domestics have seen c. $624m in net foreign inflows YTD

(through end-May), a resilient outcome given the macro backdrop. The critical

nuance, however, is that the bulk of these flows were front-loaded in 1Q26, ahead

of Operation Epic Fury. Even so, the subsequent outflow impulse has been notably

contained, particularly striking when set against a significant oil shock and a

resurgent USD. For context, the comparable period last year (at peak trade-

war uncertainty) saw SA Domestic sectors bleed c. $2.4bn in outflows. The