ASEAN

Research evidence excerpt

ASEAN

to further BI hikes. At

the same time, lower energy prices could ease inflation pres-

sures in the Philippines, in turn reducing the need for policy We are maintaining our 6.0% terminal rate estimate for now,

tightening. but the risk is skewed towards fewer rate hikes (terminal rate

of 5.5%) if the sharp drop in oil prices is sustained and leads

us to revise lower our CPI forecasts. Either way, we think theIndonesia: BI is likely not done yet

BSP will continue to adopt a measured approach (i.e., 25bp

After the off-cycle 25bp hike last week, the BI delivered hike at each meeting) to minimize market disruption.

another 25bp hike to 5.75%, taking the total hike to 100bp.

The BI Governor emphasized the BI’s “all-out” approach to Singapore: Nothin’ but a good time

stabilize the IDR, further reinforcing the BI’s pivot to a pro-

stability stance. The BI also lowered the limit for foreign cur- Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) posted a fifth consecutive

rency purchases without underlying transactions to sequential gain in May (+7.8%m/m, sa), fuelled by an unin-

USD10,000 per person per month, down further from terrupted streak of tech export gains, while non-tech, non-

USD25,000 implemented last month. Our BI-FX Pressure pharma exports pared back their earlier gains and sank back

Index (BI-FXPI), however, remains elevated at 1.7 after the into contractionary territory on a 3m/3m momentum basis.

hike, suggesting that the BI is likely not done with hiking yet Meanwhile, the momentum in tech exports inched up further

(Figure 1). to a stunning 221.4%ar, reflecting broad-based AI-related

hardware demand for not only semiconductors but also serv-

ers, server-related products, as well as disk media devicesWe maintain our forecast for another 25bp hike in July to

(Figure 2).6.00%.