Argentina: May primary surplus reinforces the fiscal anchor

Research evidence excerpt

Argentina: May primary surplus reinforces the fiscal anchor

Lucila Barbeito Latin America Economic Research J P M O R G A N(54-11) 4348-7229 18 June 2026

lucila.barbeito@jpmorgan.com

foreign-currency needs of 1.6% of GDP (see Table 2). With proceeds from dollar-

denominated domestic-law debt issuance, external loans backed by IFIs, and expected

privatization inflows, these requirements should be manageable—even under a scenario in

which only 80% of peso debt is rolled over.

Given sizable debt maturities next year, the authorities are also working proactively to pre-

finance 2027 needs. This strategy would strengthen the economy’s resilience to potential

election-year volatility—what we describe as building “antifragility.” For full-year 2027,

hard-currency requirements rise to 3.7% of GDP, or 5.3% of GDP when including BCRA’s

BOPREAL and repo debt service. Assuming 100% peso debt rollover, we estimate the 2027

financing gap at roughly US$9bn (1.4% of GDP), narrowing to about US$4bn under BCRA’s

repo rollover scenario. This gap could be closed through international market issuance—

provided the government is willing to validate prevailing market yields—or via alternative

funding sources.

Overall, the scale of foreign-currency obligations in 2027 and beyond underscores the need

to complement reserve accumulation with diversified financing options. Continued fiscal

discipline, active liability management, and a gradual re-engagement with international

markets should be key to maintaining the financing program’s medium-term consistency.

The authors wish to thank Tobias Zapata of the Latin America Economics Research team,

JPMorgan Chase Bank Sucursal Buenos Aires, for his contribution to this report.

Figure 1: Primary and headline balance

% of GDP

1.8 1.5 1.5

2 0.3 0.3 0.0