JPM | Marissa’s Macro Musings - It all comes out in the Warsh

Research evidence excerpt

JPM | Marissa’s Macro Musings - It all comes out in the Warsh

Specialist Sales

US Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

18 June 2026

Marissa Gitler

+1 212 622 2934

marissa.gitler@jpmorgan.com

US Thematics focuses on key macro views, market debates, and favored investment themes.

A few things on my mind to close out the week...

1) The FOMC meeting outcome wasn’t a deal-breaker for stocks in the face of easing implied by lower crude prices.

2) The dollar’s 13-month high is the most consequential cross-asset development to monitor, as its strength is supressing

gold and pressuring the yen through a critical intervention threshold, while simultaneously raising the question of whether

US exceptionalism is re-emerging as a regime.

3) Offsetting the energy disinflation narrative is a potentially underappreciated “techflation” risk.

While equities initially sold off on the back of the FOMC meeting yesterday, the swift market recovery this morning drives home

the idea that weakness was a knee-jerk reaction to a move higher in volatility.

UST curve flattening continued through this morning after yesterday’s sharp move, holding as a twist flattener (front end yields

moved higher to account for hawkish dots without a successive move up in longer-dated rates). That speaks to Fed credibility, and

is a positive for fiscal sustainability. Perhaps more importantly, short-dated rates are less consequential for equities than 10-year

yields (which play into multiples and valuation frameworks).

To this point, the signing of the MOU with Iran has catalyzed a significant move lower in crude prices this week, and oil’s

correlation to rates (via inflation transmission) is driving a bid to US treasuries...

Prompt crude prices are down >30% in the past month...