Sweden and Norway

Research evidence excerpt

Sweden and Norway

based recovery in 2Q after the 1Q contrac-

tion. Next week’s June NIER survey should offer an early

In Sweden, weak growth early in the year, a run of downside read on growth momentum heading into the end of 2Q. Infla-

inflation surprises, and new fiscal measures aimed at lower- tion was marked down only near term: 2026 CPIF cut to 1.1%

ing prices prompted downward revisions to the 2026 GDP (from 1.5%) on recent downside surprises and newly intro-

and CPIF projections. Despite the statement’s hawkish rheto- duced fuel subsidies. Overall, fiscal measures are expected to

ric, the Riksbank’s upward revision to its policy path was be subtracting 1.5%-pts from headline and close to 1%-pt on

more modest than expected, with little urgency to hike in the core. This implies current subdued inflation readings are not a

near term. Therefore, we pushed back our hike call from Sep- good read of underlying inflation, which is still running

tember to December (by which time the Riksbank ascribes a below target. On prices, the June NIER survey should provide

near 50% probability to a hike). an early read on how firms are responding to the US-Iran

agreement. We expect pricing intentions to ease from the

Meanwhile for the Norges Bank, growth projections were April–May highs, but to remain elevated.

revised down but the core and wage inflation forecasts were

little changed and hence still running hot. The Bank strongly Table 2: Forecasts for Swedish inflation, GDP, unemployment, and the policy rate

signaled another hike, stating explicitly that “it will likely be %, Annual percentage change, annual and quarterly averages, Brackets is March 26 MPR foreca

necessary to raise the policy rate further at one of the forth- 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Q2