FX Technical Strategy Midyear Outlook

Research evidence excerpt

FX Technical Strategy Midyear Outlook

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

18 June 2026

FX Technical Strategy Midyear

Outlook

Positive dollar setup similar to late-2025, but this time it

has cross-market support

• The DXY Index threatens to break out from the 2025-2026 base pattern that Technical Strategy

AC firmed on the heels of the 1H26 decline and 2022-2026 three-leg bear market. Jason Hunter

The dollar had a similar setup into early-2026, but this time it is supported by (1-212) 270-0034

cross-market dynamics... jason.x.hunter@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

• … While we thought the 1H26 spot gold price action represented a

consolidation pattern within an ongoing bull trend, the weakness through

4200-4300 favored support and cross-market dynamics are threatening to end

the debasement regime. The near-term trend bias remains negative while

below 4366-4595 key resistance. A downside break through 4030-4074

support would confirm a bearish medium- to longer-term trend reversal, in our

view.

• EUR/USD looks like a maturing bearish reversal pattern that has formed below

key resistance near 1.20. A downside break through 1.134 would confirm a

bearish medium-term trend reversal with initial downside targets at 1.111-

1.1185.

• The USD/JPY advance remains in gear, but has lost momentum on a short- and

medium-term basis as it has approached the 161.95 July 2024 peak. We think

the advance can extend into the months ahead and potentially to the 163.23

Feb-May equal swings objective.

• AUD/USD looks to have formed the early phase of a distribution pattern after

achieving the 0.7208-0.7213 resistance zone in the first half of the year. Key

medium-term support surrounds 0.69, which we think holds in the early-

summer period.