COSMO ENERGY HOLDINGS (5021): Announces new MTP: Plans large increase in growth investment, but raising profit growth expectations will take time

Research evidence excerpt

COSMO ENERGY HOLDINGS (5021): Announces new MTP: Plans large increase in growth investment, but raising profit growth expectations will take time

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

19 June 2026

COSMO ENERGY HOLDINGS

(5021)

Announces new MTP: Plans large increase in growth Neutral

investment, but raising profit growth expectations will 5021.T, 5021 JP

take time Price (18 Jun 26):¥3,729

Price Target (Dec-26):¥3,850

Under its new medium-term plan (MTP) and long-term vision, Cosmo Energy Japan Equity Research

Holdings plans to substantially expand growth investment. However, we do not

Trading Companies, Energy

believe the new MTP will raise expectations for profit growth, as it plans to

increase investment to expand production at relatively high-risk oil and gas fields Jiro Iokibe AC

in the Middle East and in the domestic electricity supply chain, and investment to (81-3) 6736-8668

jiro.iokibe@jpmorgan.com

ensure stable supply at existing refineries is likely to rise due to inflation. Cosmo JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.

plans to generally maintain the three-pronged balanced capital policy of the

previous MTP, so we do not expect it to substantially increase dividends and

expand shareholder returns. In addition, we do not expect Cosmo to fundamentally

review its risk from high reliance on the Middle East for crude oil procurement and

resource development, despite the recent conflict highlighting this risk.

• Expects production and profit growth in Middle East oil & gas E&P

business: Cosmo announced its 8th consolidated MTP for FY2026–28 and

long-term vision for FY2035 on June 18. It plans to raise recurring profit (ex

inventory impact) from ¥165.7 billion in FY2025 to ¥190.0 billion in FY2028

and ¥250.0 billion in FY2035.