Thailand Equity Strategy: Oil price normalization opens a window for mean reversion trade

Research evidence excerpt

Thailand Equity Strategy: Oil price normalization opens a window for mean reversion trade

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

19 June 2026

Thailand Equity Strategy

Oil price normalization opens a window for mean

reversion trade

The Thai SET index continues to defy gravity, extending the rally by nearly 5%pt Equity Macro Research

ACover the last one month. Would the US-Iran peace deal and oil price Khoi Vu, CFA

normalization provide an additional boost to equities? We believe the answer (65) 6882-8170

would be different for different sectors. Energy, Utilities, and Materials sectors' khoi.t.vu@jpmorgan.com

profitability outlook would likely reverse after a period of strong upgrades. On the J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private Limited

flip side, the consumer sector should benefit from lower input costs and recovering Rajiv Batra AC

consumer confidence. However, the headwinds have not fully abated, as reduced (65) 6882-8151

rajiv.j.batra@jpmorgan.com

tourism flows, El Niño risk, and limited room for further fiscal stimulus could curb J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private Limited

optimism. We believe that oil price normalization could open a short-term Thailand Head of Research

window for a mean reversion trade, which would focus on: (1) Stocks with

Kae Pornpunnarath, CFA ACearnings revisions that could turn positive; (2) Stocks with valuation de-rated in the

(66-2) 684-2679

last three months with chances of reversals; and (3) Stocks that got sold off by kae.pornpunnarath@jpmorgan.com

foreign investors and could see flows reverse. (See Table 2,3,4). Oil & Gas sector, JPMorgan Securities (Thailand) Limited

which has been the consensus over the past few months of both local & foreign

investors, would be the funding source as positioning rotates. Both SET and