Energy Shock Monitor

Research evidence excerpt

Energy Shock Monitor

J P M O R G A N Global Economic Research

18 June 2026

Here's how we’re reading the latest activity and price data: Economic and Policy Research

• Global flights continue to lag their 2025 levels, down 1.2%oya over the last Nora Szentivanyi

month. The standout weak spot remains China and the rest of Asia/Pacific. (44-20) 7134-7544

nora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.com

Flights in the US are also underperforming their usual seasonal increase. J.P. Morgan Securities plc

• Global vehicle activity continues to broadly hold up. However, Europe’s Maia Crook

divergence downward from its historical performance is widening. (1-212) 622-8435

maia.crook@jpmorgan.com

• Global tanker imports continued their recovery towards pre-conflict JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

levels. The US, Latam, and the EM Edge (ex GCC) now exceed February Artem Fakhretdinov

levels. Imports in Europe and Asia/Pacific ex China moved sideways near pre- (1-212) 272-1839

conflict levels, while China remains down sharply from February. artem.fakhretdinov@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

• Our Chase Card trackers of US consumer spending continue to show little

signs of strain, echoing the message from this week’s retail sales report of

households’ willingness to smooth through the energy price shock.

• Global retail fuel prices edged lower again ahead of the US-Iran deal and are

tracking a 4% decline in June. US retail gasoline prices are down 12% from

the May peak, falling back to $4.

• Other product prices, like jet-fuel and fertilizers, are also sharply lower with

the latter back to pre-conflict levels. However, container shipping costs are

still moving higher, signaling building core goods price pressures.

Daily flight numbers Retail gasoline prices by region