BoE and Norges Bank on hold: Keep paid Sep26 MPC OIS, stay short Jun27 SONIA vs. Euribor, hold short Dec26 NOK vs. EUR

Research evidence excerpt

BoE and Norges Bank on hold: Keep paid Sep26 MPC OIS, stay short Jun27 SONIA vs. Euribor, hold short Dec26 NOK vs. EUR

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

18 June 2026

BoE and Norges Bank on hold

Keep paid Sep26 MPC OIS, stay short Jun27 SONIA

vs. Euribor, hold short Dec26 NOK vs. EUR

UK Rates Strategy

The BoE kept rates on hold at 3.75% with a 7-2 vote (Pill and Greene Francis Diamond AC

(44-20) 7134-1504

dissenting for a 25bp rate hike) as widely expected. The overall tone of the francis.diamond@jpmorgan.com

minutes and the member statements indicated a willingness to wait and see to

Khagendra Gupta

evaluate the impact of indirect and second round effects from the Middle East (44-20) 7134-0486

conflict. The statement was relatively balanced, noting that the risk of material khagendra.x.gupta@jpmorgan.com

second-round effects in price and wage-setting, against which policy needs to lean, Frida Infante

is greater the longer higher energy prices persist. However, this was balanced with (33 1) 8703 2581

a view that the labour market continues to loosen, amid signs of a weakening frida.infante@jpmorgan.com

economy that could contain inflationary pressures. The forward-looking language Marcus Mayfield

was unchanged and retained a tightening bias, noting that “The Committee stands (44-20) 3493-8050

ready to act as necessary to ensure that CPI inflation remains on track to meet the marcus.mayfield@jpmorgan.com

2% target in the medium term”. Amongst the members who voted for unchanged J.P. Morgan Securities plc

rates, the minutes highlighted that one member (Mann) noted that “upside inflation

risks were more prominent across possible future outcomes, but an immediate

increase in Bank Rate was not required given their view that policy tightening