Allstate: May Update: Catastrophe Losses Light, Modest Improvement in PIF Growth

Research evidence excerpt

Allstate: May Update: Catastrophe Losses Light, Modest Improvement in PIF Growth

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

18 June 2026

Allstate Overweight

ALL, ALL US

May Update: Catastrophe Losses Light, Modest Price (17 Jun 26):$221.66

Improvement in PIF Growth

Insurance - Life & Nonlife

May 2026 catastrophe losses were light and personal auto PIF growth Pablo S. Singzon AC

improved modestly on a sequential basis. Since December 2025, both personal (1-212) 622-2295

auto and homeowners’ PIF have been growing in the 2.5-3.0% range y/y. Allstate pablo.s.singzon@jpmorgan.com

will stop reporting monthly PIF trends after this release. PIF figures will still be Kevin Wijendra

disclosed every quarter, and catastrophe losses will continue to be disclosed on the (1-212) 622-7054

third Thursday of each month. kevin.wijendra@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

• May catastrophe losses were lower than in comparable prior periods, but

2Q tends to have significant month-to-month variability. Allstate reported

cat losses of $289 million in May 2026 ($228 million after tax), which

compares with an average of roughly $742 million of losses in May over the

past 5 years (high of $1,400 million in 2024, low of $213 million in 2021). On

a quarterly basis, ALL’s average catastrophe loss in 2Q over the past 5 years

was $1.8 billion (high of $2.7 billion in 2023, low of $951 million in 2021). On

a quarter-to-date basis, ALL’s catastrophe losses are $870 million, which

compares with our $2.4 billion estimate for 2Q26 and consensus of $2.3 billion.

Given elevated SCS activity in June, we expect ALL’s catastrophe losses in

June to be higher than May and to be closer to the $870 million that was incurred

in April. This implies catastrophe losses for the full 2Q26 closer to ~$2 billion.