The Antipodean Strategist: Dare disturb the sound of silence

Research evidence excerpt

The Antipodean Strategist: Dare disturb the sound of silence

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

18 June 2026

The Antipodean Strategist

Dare disturb the sound of silence

• RBA messaging this week seems fulsome in the wake of terse Fed comms. Australian and New Zealand Interest

Largely playing to script, the RBA left the cash rate steady as prior tightening Rate Strategy

provided space to “assess the response” of the economy. The statement noted that Ben K Jarman AC

another hike will be delivered if required, a reminder that will, in our view, be (61-2) 9003-7982

maintained in upcoming meetings given that annual inflation will remain high, ben.k.jarman@jpmorgan.com

requiring some pushback against pricing which now implies only a slight hiking Tom Kennedy

bias (+15bp to terminal). Still, plugging our expectation for the data into the now (61-2) 9003-7981

more data-dependent reaction function, it does seem likely that the hiking cycle tom.kennedy@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

is done.

• On a 3m basis the RBA is no longer over-delivering vs prior forwards, as it was

in say mid-March, leaving the policy stance now in an indeterminate range for

curve shape. Take profit on belly outperformance trades which had been

expressing the tighter financial conditions/stern reaction function theme:

received belly AUD 2s5s10s IRS, long belly of the ACGB May30/May32/

May34 fly.

• We maintain the AUD-USD 2Y1Y (IRS-SFR) spread tightener entered in early

May, in part acknowledging the evolving Fed outlook. The case can be made for

adding further domestic bullish proxies, but the broader context is important, as

global growth risks are tilting upward. For the first time in quite a while, the