BHP Group Ltd (BHP LN): Jansen Stage 2 capex increases ~40% to $6.9bn, exactly in line with JPMe

Research evidence excerpt

BHP Group Ltd (BHP LN): Jansen Stage 2 capex increases ~40% to $6.9bn, exactly in line with JPMe

C A Z E N O V E Europe Equity Research

18 June 2026

BHP Group Ltd (BHP LN) Neutral

BHPB.L, BHP LN

Jansen Stage 2 capex increases ~40% to $6.9bn, Price (17 Jun 26):3,480p

exactly in line with JPMe Price Target (Dec-27):3,400p

Our Take – capex increase to $6.9bn exactly in line with JPMe: BHP has European Metals, Mining & Steel

ACcompleted its detailed review of the Jansen Stage 2 potash project in Canada (JS2). Dominic O'Kane

BHP states that JS2 budgeted capex will increase to $6.9bn (incl. contingencies) (44-20) 7742-6729

vs $4.9bn previously, with first production in late FY’31. Whilst this represents a dominic.j.okane@jpmorgan.com

~40% capex blow-out, the new estimate is exactly in line with JPMe, as outlined J.P. Morgan Securities plc

in Apr’26 Jansen Deep Dive. Total project capex including pre-FID and JS1 will Patrick Jones

stand at ~$20bn at completion; JPMe $13.5bn NPV for the project (JS1 and JS2). (44-20) 7742-5964

patrick.jones@jpmorgan.com

BHP states it will record a $2.3bn impairment for Jansen at H2’26 results in August. J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Our key takeaway is revised detailed capex estimates and the impairment provide

Rosie Jia

a signal that new incoming CEO Brandon Craig is likely to advance JS2 for FID; (44-20) 3493-7448

JPM’s base-case forecasts JS2 will add first production in CY H1’31. We calculate rosie.jia@jpmorgan.com

BHP trades on spot 2026E/27E 7.2x/7.7x EV/EBITDA, 4%,3% FCF yield. We are J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Neutral BHP’s UK listing and our colleague Lyndon Fagan is OW on BHP’s Varun Bhattad

Australia primary listing. (91-22) 6157-5027

varun.bhattad@jpmchase.com

• Noteworthy Areas: 1) Jansen Stage 2 capex lifted to $6.9bn ($4.9bn J.P.