G10 FX Daily Report - 18th June 2026. Thu Jun 18 2026

Research evidence excerpt

G10 FX Daily Report - 18th June 2026. Thu Jun 18 2026

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A Nlaoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 18 June 2026

G10 FX

EUR Ask the task force. Was thinking of leaving it at that this morning!!

The committee is hawkish that is for certain so I agreed with the first leg of the dollar higher.

Where I minimised things was on the second leg where my instinct was to take some profit not

add. For me whilst there was insistence on price stability, I felt the setting up of task forces and

looking at reliability of alternative data was an attempt to hold off hikes (setting up and

reporting findings takes some time?) and to try and justify why inflation might be at or around

target rather than above. Nonetheless, with forward guidance out the window and the US data

continuing to perform admirably (retail sales yesterday latest example) given Warsh is only one

vote volatility should pick up around key data releases and whilst rates markets have moved

there will be no need to reverse if the July payrolls and CPI come in hot.

On the Middle East, seems to me Trump has capitulated on a lot of demands (needs the “win”

pre midterms?) so before I was thinking we get not much detail and have to price in some delta

of a resumption of hostilities, this to me feels like something the Iranians should be fine to get

onboard with and therefore risks have subsided, all in all another shot in the arm for the growth

outlook.

So where does this all leave me? Not far from where I was before, there should be some dollar

outperformance here selectively but growth and carry should be overall protected. So an

overhang of longs in G10 with chf still my favourite (low yielder, desire for currency weaker,