UK: Labour market slightly better than expected

Research evidence excerpt

UK: Labour market slightly better than expected

J P M O R G A N Europe Economic Research

18 June 2026

UK: Labour market slightly better

than expected

• Unemployment rate drops unexpectedly to 4.9%, sending a mixed signal Economic and Policy Research

about slack Allan Monks

• Trend in employee job growth remains weak, but LFS suggests self- (44-20)allan.j.monks@jpmorgan.com7134-8309

employment is surging J.P. Morgan Securities plc

• Average earnings run rate remains soft despite an upside surprise,

although other data indciate a firmer pace

The latest labour market report contained some surprises, suggesting that

conditions aren’t deteriorating to the extent suggested in the prior report. We had

suspected that the 100k drop in payroll employment in April would be partly

revised away. This happened with a revision to -53k, while May showed a modest

2k gain with a broadly flat to falling trend overall. The trend in private sector

payrolls remains weaker, however, with the 3m/3m annualised rate down 1.4%, but

the data for May show these jobs flat.

The separate LFS household survey showed a strong 100k quarterly gain in

employment in the three months to April (+1.2% annualised). These data still have

reliability issues and in the past have been harder to square with most other

indicators that point to a stagnation in jobs, but the details suggest the strength is

coming entirely from self-employment at present (+17%, ar), with employee jobs

declining 70k, or 0.9% annualised.

Our nowcast has been steadier around zero, and estimates employment growth to

be 0.1% annualised at present, but this wouldn’t capture self-employment trends.

The LFS self-employment bounce helped to pull the ILO unemployment rate down

unexpectedly from 5.0% to 4.9% in the three months to April.