Asia Insights: Foreign Exchange - Asia ex-Japan

Research evidence excerpt

Asia Insights: Foreign Exchange - Asia ex-Japan

Global Markets Research

17 June 2026Asia Insights

Foreign Exchange - Asia ex-Japan

Research AnalystsBI and RBI continued to drain their FX reserves

Asia FX Strategyaggressively in May

Craig Chan - NSL

Relatively limited intervention by the remainder of AeJ central banks, as craig.chan@nomura.com

broad USD traded in a narrow range. +65 6433 6106

Wee Choon Teo - NSL

• BI and RBI responded to sustained FX depreciation pressures through aggressive weechoon.teo@nomura.com

FX/USD selling intervention in May, as USD/IDR and USDINR broke new highs. +65 6433 6107

• Arguably, the recent, large drawdowns in their FX reserves could have pressured BI Vicky Chen - NSL

and RBI to take stronger measures, such as the off-cycle rate hike and concessional vicky.chen1@nomura.com

FX swap for FCNR(B) deposits, respectively. +65 6433 6540

Manthan Shingala - NSL • BOK’s spot FX/USD selling intervention was rather limited, even as KRW depreciation

manthan.shingala1@nomura.com pressures mounted.

+65 6433 6427

• The PBoC, MAS, BOT and CBC accumulated limited FX reserves, as their currencies

remained stable or even appreciated against USD (i.e., CNH and TWD).

Key observations

• Our estimates show that BI was one of the most aggressive sellers of FX/USD

within AeJ in May, at USD4.8bn (~3.9% of April 2026 FXR; spot + forward). This

brought BI’s 2026 YTD intervention to USD21.2bn (~15.7% of 2025 FXR). Despite the

heavy intervention, onshore USD/IDR traded to an all-time high of 17,887 in May, and

then higher to 18,190 on 8 June 2026. Under the IMF’s four FX adequacy measures,

BI’s FX reserve adequacy stood at 90% as of April. However, accounting for

predetermined short-term drainage, the reserve adequacy deteriorates to 46%.