Japan trade statistics: May 2026: Hints of easing of supply constraints from the volume side

Research evidence excerpt

Japan trade statistics: May 2026: Hints of easing of supply constraints from the volume side

Global Markets Research

17 June 2026Japan trade statistics: May 2026

Economics - Japan

Research AnalystsHints of easing of supply constraints from the

Japan Economicsvolume side

Yuki Ito - NSC

Bottlenecks for exports to the Middle East may have started to ease yuki.ito@nomura.com

+81 3 6703 3867

• Real goods exports were up 2.2% m-m in May 2026 and real goods imports were up Kyohei Morita - NSC

2.4%. When also taking into account service trade, this is consistent with our forecast that kyohei.morita@nomura.com

external demand (net exports = exports - imports) will boost real GDP in Apr–Jun. +81 3 6703 1395

• Imports of a wide range of goods rose in May, including chemical products and mineral

fuels. Progress with alternative sources for crude oil and other commodities indicates

easing of supply constraints on the volume side.

• Goods exports to the Middle East recovered to just under 60% of their 2025 average. It

appears that transport using alternative routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz are being

realized.

Goods trade: External demand (net exports) expected to support real GDP growth in

Apr–Jun

Nominal exports were up 17.0% y-y and nominal imports were up 12.5% in May 2026.

Export growth came in above the Bloomberg median consensus forecast of +16.5%, while

import growth came below the consensus forecast of +12.8%.

After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, we estimate that real goods exports were up

2.2% m-m in May and real goods imports were up 2.4%. Comparing the Apr–May average

with the Jan–Mar average in order to smooth out single-month fluctuations, we see that

real goods exports in these two months were 4.1% lower than the average for the prior