Riksbank review: Not in a hurry

Research evidence excerpt

Riksbank review: Not in a hurry

Global Markets Research

17 June 2026First Insights

Economics - Global

Research Analysts

Riksbank review: Not in a hurry European Economics

Josie Anderson - NIplc

• TheRiksbankleftitspolicyrateunchangedat1.75%atitsJunemeeting,asweand josie.anderson@nomura.com

consensusexpected. +44 (0) 20 7102 4284

• TheBankrevisedupitspolicyrateprojectionandgaveguidancethat “theprobability George Buckley - NIplc

thattheratewillberaisedlaterthisyearhasincreasedinrelationtotheassessment george.buckley@nomura.com

inMarch”. +44 (0) 20 7102 1800

• We continuetoexpectnochangeintheRiksbank’spolicyratethisyear,andforecast Andrzej Szczepaniak - NIplc

a25bprateriseinDecember2027,thoughacknowledgerisksofanearlierratehike andrzej.szczepaniak@nomura.com

haverisen. +44 (0) 20 7102 3167

Global Economics

Higher probability of a rate rise, but no immediate rush David Seif - NSI

david.seif@nomura.comThe Riksbank left its policy rate unchanged at 1.75% at its June meeting, as we and

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consensus expected. It reintroduced guidance, after having paused the provision of a

forward view on rates at the May meeting. It said “the probability that the rate will be raised

later this year has increased in relation to the assessment in March”. This comes despite

inflation surprising the Riksbank to the downside since the last forecasts. However, the

Riksbank assesses that the risk of inflation becoming too high has increased, as the Strait

of Hormuz remains closed to the majority of traffic.

Fig. 1: Policy rate projection revised slightly higher Fig. 2: Underlying inflation lower this year, higher next

Source: Riksbank, Nomura

Source: RIksbank, Haver, Nomura

As we believedwaslikely, the Riksbank raised its policy rate projection, but only by a

small amount.