Japan: June 2026 BOJ Tankan preview

Research evidence excerpt

Japan: June 2026 BOJ Tankan preview

Global Markets Research

Japan: June 2026 BOJ Tankan preview 17 June 2026

Economics - Japan

We forecast deterioration in corporate sentiment, particularly Research Analysts

at materials-related manufacturing sectors Japan Economics

Yuki Ito - NSC

However, we are unlikely to see a downward shock to domestic demand yuki.ito@nomura.com

+81 3 6703 3867

Kyohei Morita - NSC

• We expect the June BOJ Tankan Survey (scheduled for release on 1 July) to show kyohei.morita@nomura.com

some deterioration in corporate sentiment amid tensions in the Middle East, +81 3 6703 1395

particularly at materials-related manufacturing sectors. The media have reported that

the US and Iran may sign a peace accord as early as 19 June, but given that the

target response date for this Tankan survey was 11 June, it is unlikely to provide any

insight into the implications of such an agreement.

• We expect current business conditions DIs, which reflect corporate sentiment, to fall

versus the March survey at large manufacturers and come in flat at large

nonmanufacturers. We expect business conditions to deteriorate as a result of

increased supply constraints on both the price and volume fronts, particularly at

materials-related manufacturing sectors, which feature prominently in the upstream

parts of the supply chain.

• We expect revisions to FY26 fixed investment forecasts (all enterprises, all industries)

versus the March survey to be on a par with previous years (FY22–25 average). We

still see little likelihood that heightened tensions in the Middle East will depress

corporate earnings and by extension cause a downward shock to fixed investment and

other measures of domestic demand.