Recruit Holdings

Research evidence excerpt

Recruit Holdings

Global Markets Research

17 June 2026Recruit Holdings

6098.T 6098 JP / EQUITY: JAPAN SERVICES

RatingWe hike our target price to ¥16,000 and raise our

Up from Neutral Buyrating to Buy

Target price

Indeed gets paid when staff are hired with Premium Indeed; we expect Increased from 8,000 JPY 16,000

EBITDA+S margin to rise on sales growth and cost controls

Closing price JPY 10,750We hike our target price to ¥16,000 and raise our rating to Buy 16 June 2026

We raise our earnings forecasts for 27/3 onwards, hike our fair-value EV/EBITDA+S from 11x to

Implied upside +48.8%22x, hike our target price to ¥16,000, and raise our rating to Buy. We raise our fair-value EV

multiple from 12x to 25x for the HR technology segment and from 10x to 15x for the marketing

matching technology segment. We also raise our four-year cumulative share buyback

assumption from ¥2.9trn to ¥3.3trn.

Relative performance chart

HR technology segment likely to see rise in profit growth potential and business valuation

At the HR technology segment, the main factor behind the upward revision to our target price, we

raise our medium-term CAGR forecast (through 30/3 over the end-27/3 baseline) for US average

revenue per job posting (USARPJ) from 8% to 16% to reflect strong performance of the Indeed

Premium advertising plan. We raise our 30/3 consolidated EBITDA+S margin forecast from 29%

to 34% to reflect thorough cost controls. While share price valuations of HR technology

companies are falling on AI risks, at Recruit Holdings, Indeed Premium has been growing in the

in-person domain and its EV valuations have been rising. We expect business valuations to rise

as sales growth gathers pace at Indeed, particularly for Indeed Premium, from 27/3. Our forecasts