Policy Watch: June FOMC Recap

Research evidence excerpt

Policy Watch: June FOMC Recap

Global Markets Research

17 June 2026Policy Watch

Economics - North America

Research Analysts

June FOMC Recap North America Economics

Aichi Amemiya - NSI

• The FOMC kept rates on hold at their June meeting. The dot plot and economic aichi.amemiya@nomura.com

projections were more hawkish than expected, while Chair Warsh’s press conference +1 212 667 9347

signaled his dovish tilt. Jeremy Schwartz - NSI

• The Fed delivered a significantly shorter statement that eliminated forward guidance, jeremy.schwartz@nomura.com

indicating that Warsh has made an immediate impact in simplifying Fed +1 212 667 9637

communications. Ruchir Sharma - NSI

• Warsh announced the creation of five new task forces to revamp the Fed, including ruchir.sharma@nomura.com

one on alternative data sources and data measurement. Warsh indicated that he is +1 212 667 9186

currently recruiting task force members, with an aim to provide recommendations by Jacklyn Goloborodsky - NSI

year-end. jacklyn.goloborodsky@nomura.com

• Warsh neither revealed his own policy outlook nor submitted his own dot, but his +1 212 298 4739

comments on inflation and the dot plot indicated his dovish bias, which could be Global Economics

reflected in the choice of task force members. David Seif - NSI

• WemaintainourviewthattheFedwillholdratessteadyfortherestofthisyearand david.seif@nomura.com

nextyear, though we see growing risks of one or more hikes given the high level of +1 212 667 9180

support for tightening evident from the dot plot.

Fig. 1: The FOMC kept rates on hold at their June meeting Fig. 2: We maintain our view that the Fed will hold rates steady

for the rest of this year and next year

Tool Key assumptions

Policy rate

2026 No rate cuts, EOP 3.625%

2027 No rate cuts, EOP 3.625%