Food Producers and Retailers: Oh SNAP! Assessing Changes at the State Level and the Implications for the Group

Research evidence excerpt

Food Producers and Retailers: Oh SNAP! Assessing Changes at the State Level and the Implications for the Group

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

18 June 2026

Food Producers and Retailers

Oh SNAP! Assessing Changes at the State Level and

the Implications for the Group

In this note, we analyze two ongoing changes to the Supplemental Nutritional Food Producers & Retailers

ACAssistance Program (SNAP). First, since the start of fiscal 2026 (beginning Thomas Palmer, CFA

October 2025), changes to Federal eligibility, mainly related to work requirements (1-212) 622-5582

(with varying levels of state enforcement), have contributed to a 9% Y/Y decline thomas.palmer@jpmorgan.com

in Federal payments over the first eight months of the fiscal year, and a 9% Y/Y J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

decline in households participating in SNAP as of February 2026 (the most recent

month of data). Second, using recently issued waivers, a growing number of states

have begun excluding certain items, most commonly candy and/or soda, from

SNAP eligibility (link). Our analysis suggests that the reduction in the number of

SNAP households is having a limited effect on food at home spending. However,

we see a more pronounced impact on category sales when eligibility restrictions

are introduced, especially for candy (the impact on sales seems to be ~2%, though

it is volatile from period to period). Within our food producers coverage, HSY is

most exposed to candy, while within our food retailers coverage c-stores YSWY,

CASY, and ATD have above-average sales exposure to candy and soft drinks but

relatively low exposure to SNAP spending.

Fewer SNAP-Covered Households Are Driving Lower Payments — But With

Seemingly Limited Flow Through to Food Consumption