Above the Line – US Food Retailers: Deep Dive into Key Numerator Trends for Supermarkets, Mass Merchants, Club Stores, etc.

Research evidence excerpt

Above the Line – US Food Retailers: Deep Dive into Key Numerator Trends for Supermarkets, Mass Merchants, Club Stores, etc.

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

18 June 2026

Above the Line – US Food

Retailers

Deep Dive into Key Numerator Trends for

Supermarkets, Mass Merchants, Club Stores, etc.

In this note, we analyze important trends for US food retailers via Numerator, an Food Producers & Retailers

ACalternative data provider that sources first-party consumer information. We have Thomas Palmer, CFA

found Numerator to be helpful in demonstrating the “why” behind key trends (for (1-212) 622-5582

example, it can show key sales growth drivers such as households and purchase thomas.palmer@jpmorgan.com

frequency). Below, please find charts and tables that illustrate many deep-dive, Elsa H Evans

Numerator-generated statistics. (1-212) 622-4922

elsa.evans@jpmchase.com

Highlights for May Brandon Cohen, CPA

(1-212) 622-4168

brandon.cohen@jpmorgan.com

AC• SNAP is being used less often Y-Y at most of the retailers that we track. This Christopher Horvers, CFA

has been a prevalent trend for 2+ years now, but the rate of decline has eased (1-212) 622-1316

lately. Per Numerator, only 3.5% of food and beverage shopping trips use christopher.horvers@jpmorgan.com

SNAP. See Figures 11, 12, and 40. Christian Carlino, CFA

• Proj. sales for at-home food and beverage purchases have moderated over (1-212)christian.carlino@jpmorgan.com622-9145

the last few months. Units per trip and frequency have both been slipping since

Jolie Wasserman the beginning of the year, while growth in dollars per unit has been

(1-212) 622-1961

accelerating. Households continue to grow low-single digits Y/Y. See Figure jolie.wasserman@jpmchase.com

1. J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

• Across channels, proj.