Korea

Research evidence excerpt

Korea

Seok Gil Park (82-2) 758-5509 Asia Pacific Economic Research J P M O R G A Nseok.g.park@jpmchase.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Seoul Branch 18 June 2026

Jooeun Kim (82-2) 758-5512

jooeun.kim@jpmorgan.com

Korea Petroleum refining export volumes contracted 59.2% 3m/3m

saar, reflecting supply chain disruptions, but overall non-tech

• 2Q exports volume more resilient than expected export volumes rose 14.0% in the three-month trend (Figure

2), indicating that strength outside petroleum refining was

• Positive terms of trade continue sufficient to offset the oil supply shock. In particular, the

Tensions easing in the Middle East and the resulting decline trend recovery was led by basic metals (63.1%), machinery

in oil prices have not derailed the Bank of Korea’s hawkish (30.3%), and fabricated metal products (7.5%).

communication, which remains firmly in place. While sec-

ond-round inflation spillovers from higher oil prices are likely Figure 2: Exports volume index

to peak in the coming months, the associated reduction in oil- %3m/3m, saar

Tech

driven downside risks to growth also implies a stronger 75

upside bias to activity. Given that we already see substantial 50

upside risks to the BoK’s annual growth forecast (BoK: 2.6%

y/y; JPM: 3.7%), we expect hawkish communication to per-

sist as the gap between the two increasingly narrows. 0

-25

On growth, there is relatively little doubt that nominal growth Non-tech

-50

will be exceptionally strong this year (JPM: 15.1% y/y). 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

However, there is considerable uncertainty around how much Source: MoTIE, KITA, and J.P. Morgan

of that nominal impulse would be deflated, implying that the

range of outcomes for real growth could be meaningfully Terms of trade gains to continue