Peloton (PTON): Model Update

Research evidence excerpt

Peloton (PTON): Model Update

17 June 2026

Aneesha Sherman

+1 917 344 8457

U.S. Apparel & Specialty Retail aneesha.sherman@bernsteinsg.com

Peloton Interactive Inc Jessica Tian

+1 917 344 8413

Rating jessica.tian@bernsteinsg.com

Market-Perform Jed Hodulik

Price Target +1 917 344 8594

jed.hodulik@bernsteinsg.com

PTON 6.00 USD

We update our Peloton model to reflect more conservative gross add projections following

Close Date 17 Jun 2026

an anticipated FY27 inflection, assuming ~3% subscriber growth in FY28 and FY29

PTON Close Price (USD) 5.53

(modestly above historical GDP per capita growth), given Management’s focus on

Price Target (USD) 6.00

maintaining strong unit economics and sustainable LTV/CAC over prioritizing a near-term

Upside/(Downside) 8%

return to subscriber growth. As a result, our revenue forecast has been revised downward,

52-Week Range 9.20/3.65

entirely driven by the hardware segment; however, this is partially offset by higher hardware

SPX 7,511.35

and subscription ARPU assumptions, better reflecting the company’s diversification into new

FYE Jun

revenue streams (e.g., Commercial, Spotify partnership).

Div Yield NA

On margins, we continue to expect improvement, driven primarily by hardware gross margin Market Cap (USD) (M) 2,394

expansion (unchanged) and G&A leverage, where Management have identified further cost EV (USD) (M) 2,997

savings opportunities (e.g., SBC). We expect R&D to remain relatively stable at current dollar Performance YTD 1M 6M 12M

levels, while S&M is expected to remain variable with growth and investment cadence. Absolute (%) (10.2) 4.5 (9.8) (9.6)

Despite lowering our hardware revenue assumptions, the increased mix of higher-margin SPX (%) 9.7 1.4 10.5 24.5

subscription revenue drives a modest uplift to our margin and EPS outlook.