Inccyte: Progress made for patients, but not yet for revenue growth post-Jakafi LOE

Research evidence excerpt

Inccyte: Progress made for patients, but not yet for revenue growth post-Jakafi LOE

18 June 2026

Jeffrey Walch

+1 917 344 8613

US SMID-Cap Biopharmaceuticals jeffrey.walch@bernsteinsg.com

Incyte Corporation

Rating

Market-Perform

Price Target

INCY 99.00 USD

Incyte: Progress made for patients, but not yet for revenue

growth post-Jakafi LOE

We sharpen our answer for INCY to reflect data disclosures, Vega acquisiiton and

Close Date 17 Jun 2026

INCA033989 2L ET Ph3 clinical trials.gov posting. However, we land on the same

INCY Close Price (USD) 98.99

recommendation: investors should pass on INCY for now until there is a clear pathway for

Price Target (USD) 99.00

revenue growth after Jakafi LOE in 2028. Jakafi has been the key driver of Incyte’s growth

Upside/(Downside) 0%

and accounted for 60% of FY’25 total revenue. We are generally in line with consensus for

52-Week Range 112.29/66.74

overall revenue trajectory: Steady decline of peak risk-adjusted sales ($6.5B, FY’28) to $4.6B

SPX 7,420.10

in FY’40. Incyte’s life cycle management (LCM) to replace Jakafi revenue is encouraging

FYE Dec

- particularly Monjuvi - however, taken together these efforts do not appear sufficient for

Div Yield NA

a return to growth. In our view, early-stage INCA033989 (potential first-in-class mutant

Market Cap (USD) (M) 19,776

calreticulin mAb) is the best hope to spark a growth story pending the outcome of announced

EV (USD) (M) 15,800

future registrational trials in both Essential thrombocythemia (ET) and Myelofibrosis (MF).

We have increased our PTS for INCA033989 2L ET based on our analysis of the trial design Performance YTD 1M 6M 12M

posted to clinical trials.gov. We forecast modest peak sales for VGA039 ($575M in 2040) as Absolute (%) 0.2 3.9 1.4 43.9

part of the Vega acquisition.